Methodology
What this estimate assumes
For each category, the calculator multiplies your monthly spend by the share exposed to tariffs, a blended tariff rate, and a pass-through rate. Then adds your province鈥檚 sales tax, because GST/HST/PST applies on the tariff-inclusive price. The annual figure is that monthly amount 脳 12.
Assumptions current as of September 8, 2026, when Canada鈥檚 dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs (15%, 25% and 50% on ~$27.6B of US-origin goods) took effect Two things that surprise people: tariffs apply only to US-origin goods, country of manufacture, not brand, and earlier auto counter-tariffs remain in force on top of this list. Sources: Dept. of Finance: US products subject to counter-tariffs (629 lines) 路 Statistics Canada: merchandise imports by origin, 2024 路 StatCan SHS 2023: household spending by household type (11-10-0224-01).
Typical amounts: Typical amounts are Statistics Canada鈥檚 2023 Survey of Household Spending averages by household type: food from stores, clothing, vehicle operations (fuel, maintenance and running costs, not car purchases), and furnishings and equipment.
| Category | Share exposed | Blended tariff | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groceries | 8% | 25% | Cheese and fresh curd at 25%, concentrated dairy at 50%. But supply-managed dairy and largely spared seafood mean the US-origin slice of the basket is small. |
| Clothing & footwear | 8% | 50% | Apparel sits in the 50% tier, but most clothing Canadians buy is made in Asia. Only the US-manufactured slice is tariffed. |
| Electronics & appliances | 10% | 35% | Smartphones and game consoles at 50%, other electronics and major appliances at 15-25%. Brand is not origin: a US-brand phone assembled in Asia is untouched. |
| Vehicle & auto costs | 45% | 25% | Earlier auto counter-tariffs remain in force on top of the Sept 8 list, and ~58% of vehicle imports are US-origin (StatCan 2024). Services and labour are not tariffed. |
| Home improvement & furnishings | 25% | 40% | Wooden furniture, plywood and drywall at 50%; kitchen cabinets and softwood lumber at 25%. Domestic lumber keeps the exposed share down. |
| Other imported goods | 20% | 40% | Cosmetics, sporting goods and plastics at 50%; tools and industrial goods at 15%. Only the US-origin portion counts. |
The $X-$Y range comes from pass-through alone: the low end assumes 60% of tariff costs reach shelf prices (retailers and suppliers absorb the rest), the high end assumes 90%. Research consistently finds consumers bear most of the burden, but the exact split varies by product, retailer, and timing. So the honest answer is a range, not a number.
Limits: tariff rates change with policy; retailers may substitute suppliers; services and labour in your spending (haircuts, repairs, insurance) are not tariffed; shelf prices lag border charges (goods already in transit were exempt, and existing inventory sells first); and this ignores second-order effects like a weaker dollar. Treat the result as exposure under current conditions, not a bill.
